In Philadelphia, the Democratic mayoral primary that will almost certainly determine the next mayor is just five weeks off. I'll be writing in from Philly later this week with an extensive look at the race. Meanwhile, here's a look at crime in the City of Brotherly Love, which more than 70 per cent of likely Democratic voters in the latest poll rate as their foremost concern, with no other issue cracking double digits. What's more, a majority of those voters (56 per cent) want the return of tough on crime former Giuliani deputy and then Philadelphia Police Chief John Timoney, who's now heading the Miami department, and more than three-fifths favor an increase in stop and frisk policing.

The Philadelphia Daily News, though, has a different view of crime—one that holds the city harmless for its 97 murders through March, as against 84 in New York City. That's a more than 600% difference in the murder rate. in a news article entirely devoid of opposing opinions, the paper—and the city's top cop—however, prefer to blame environmental factors than concede that a new mayor and police chief could do better:

It may have more to do with New York's world-class status than its crime-fighting techniques, professors and police officials argued yesterday. A healthy job market and a chance at a decent education influences crime statistics more than a police department, they argued. "Philadelphia is not New York," said Police Commissioner Sylvester Johnson, who was not too pleased with the comparison. "You have to look at the economy and demographics. There are many factors involved with homicides other than the police."

…

Meanwhile, more than 80 percent of Philadelphia's 2006 murder victims were African-American, according to police statistics. And juvenile gun violence has reached a five-year high, with teenage boys as the targets.

"Idleness among youth is extremely high and extremely dangerous," said economist Dr. Neeta Fogg, of Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Studies.

"The world of work is so foreign to them, and the world of crime is right there. They don't have any other options."

Fogg warned: "You are losing all your kids. This is the future workforce."

What might be done about this, the article doesn't say. The point, though, is clear: it's not on us. Here's hoping Philadelphians know more than their newspaper and their police chief.

For a telling counterpoint, take a look at Broken Windows pioneer George Kelling's look at why Newark's murder rate continues to rise even as the overall crime rate goes down, and what can be done to bring it down in a city where nearly all murders stem from corner dealing culture, and who shoots and who gets shot is mostly "the luck of the draw":

Research conducted by Rutgers Police Institute reveals what is going on in Newark: a relatively small number of African-American young men, with lengthy delinquency and criminal histories, are carrying guns, dealing drugs, draping themselves in gang colors, and settling disputes -- many trivial -- by shooting each other. While many shootings appear gang related -- in that the shooter and victim are gang members in name -- relatively few are gang motivated. Gang membership, except for relatively small groups of hard-core individuals, is largely symbolic. Who shoots, and who gets shot, is almost literally determined by the "luck of the draw." We had a shooting victim last month, for example, who had 34 arrests and 19 convictions, mostly for weapons possession and drug sales. This time he was the victim, but he could have easily been the perpetrator. Further complicating matters, many who survive shootings know who shot them but won't tell the police -- planning instead to settle the matter themselves and continue the cycle of violence. Witness intimidation is widespread.

A cynic might say this is a whole different category of victimless crime, but Kelling and co-author Michael Wagers prefer to look at how Newark Police Director Garry McCarthy might be able to repeat the success he had as precinct commander for New York's Washington Heights, then the drug dealing capital of the city, and home to a riot following the shooting of a known drug dealer that helped elect Giuliani mayor after Dinkins immediately went to the hospital room of the fallen thug:

Like Newark today, Washington Heights in the 1980s and early '90s was a major drug distribution center that suffered from high levels of violent crime. In 1991, there were 119 murders in Washington Heights, which is approximately the size of Newark. Under McCarthy's leadership as commander of the 33rd precinct, murders in Washington Heights fell to just 15 by 1998, an incredible 87 percent drop.

How did McCarthy accomplish this? In three phases: first, he targeted and dismantled the entire wholesale and retail drug organization in the neighborhood. This was not just a few "buy and bust operations." Forty top-level dealers were arrested, prosecuted, and handed stiff prison sentences.
Second, to ensure that the vacuum that resulted from the first phase did not attract other drug organizations, he increased police presence through foot patrol and aggressive vehicle and pedestrian stops, which were conducted under clear legal guidelines.

Third, police closely collaborated with other city agencies to improve and maintain the quality of life in the neighborhood. Police also mobilized the community by helping organize block watches, youth councils, and landlord and tenant associations. Even when McCarthy gradually cut the police presence, the initiative's full impact remained. Police and newly-empowered community leaders have prevented disorder and crime from returning.