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Fred Siegel
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Real Estate


November 06, 2006

Time to Surender


Lyndon Johnson, the story goes, once delivered a speech in New York on the Great Society. Just as he declared America was engaged “in nothing less than an all-out war on poverty,” a small voice from the crowd replied, “Mr. President, we surrender.”

By the mid-1970s it became glaringly apparent that the Great Society efforts to uplift inner city areas were not just a failure, but exacerbated problems. But 30 years later, New Jersey state government continues its heroic efforts in Camden, at a high price in people and dollars. (This is a city where the mayor, upon hearing that Camden had dropped from America's first to its third most dangerous city, exclaimed "You made my day!")

In Manhattan, the only way to tell the post-war luxury towers from the projects of the same era is the color of the brick—the wealthy painted it white. Also, that the poor housing tended to be close to the waterfront (often with spectacular views on the higher floors) which then seemed undesirable for living. Chicago's new "stigma-smasher" is still another attempt to pretend that it's the housing that makes the people, instead of the other way around.

All of which illustrates the optimism—I'd almost say religious belief—inherent in the word "project," and the danger in using the power of the government to tamper with human nature.

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October 31, 2006

Quick Hits - Angels With Upset Stomachs


  • Angels' Night? Devil's Night by another name has been different in Detroit, where volunteer patrols across the city along with a curfew and a ban on gas in portable containers cut fires to 121 last year from a high of 810 in 1984. That's relative progress, I grant, but progress nonetheless. Since I'll be posting on fast food later today, I should mention that the angels are rewarded with free food from White Castle ("In Greek mythology, ambrosia is the food of gods, but angels have more discriminating tastes").
  • A fawning but nonetheless interesting interview with Steven Johnson, author of The Ghost Map: The Story of London's Most Terrifying Epidemic—and How It Changed Science, Cities, and the Modern World, a surprisingly good book from the guy until now best known for the over-hyped and uninteresting Everything Bad Is Good For You.
  • Businessweek compares housing booms and busts in different regions, and explains why the outlook is gloomy for Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas. And the Adjustable Rate Mortgages that helped fuel the boom are now churning the market's depths in San Francisco.
  • And Cities on a Hill Editor-In-Chief Fred Siegel on France's rolling riots—"France today is a lot like New York before Rudy Giuliani. Its pitiful helpless giant of a government is so large so as to crush the economy and yet unable to stem widespread criminality. And as in New York, there is the fear that its best days are behind it."

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    October 26, 2006

    Quick Hits-Condos, Crime & Canada


  • Chicago's foreclosure troubles suggest a cooling market, which hasn't stopped Mayor Daley, who is gearing up for a tough election, from appointing an affordable housing taskforce that will consider, among other things, a moratorium on condominiums.
  • Interesting new crime maps in Chicago and D.C.
  • More power to Canadian cities? Ed Morgan's against it, and explains why "city power over land use has segregated rather than integrated residents."

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    October 25, 2006

    Quick Hits - Prisoners, Patients and Tenants


  • The first Cities on a Hill column has America Works founder Peter Cove weighing in on recidivism, the new battleground for the forces previously arrayed about welfare.
  • What to do about people with no preemptive, primary care who substitute emergency room visits when serious health problems develop? The Times takes an aproving look at a move by a few ERs to provide free primary care:
    With the number of uninsured Americans reaching a record 46.6 million last year, up by 7 million from 2000, Seton is one of a small number of hospital systems around the country to have done the math and acted on it. Officials decided that for many patients with chronic diseases, it would be cheaper to provide free preventive care than to absorb the high cost of repeated emergencies.
    While the article begins with the classic carefully selected victim who is "Unable to afford health insurance," between Medicaid and Medicare, the problem for most people making E.R. visits central to their health regime is life and health management, not impeded access to primary care.
  • Edward Glaeser weighs in on the sale of Stuy Town, and how a generations-long undoing of the free housing market in New York intended to preserve affordable housing in fact stymies its development. And a great cartoon to boot—

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    October 24, 2006

    Quick Hits—Vanishing Public School Students


  • Otis White looks at fast declining public school enrollments in cities across the West Coast, including a 10,000 student drop from a year ago in California, the first statewide dip in 25 years.
  • Baltimore is "one of those odd American cities that lies in no county; instead, it dangles in the water, surrounded by a ragged blob of land… a monkey wrench hanging from the Mason-Dixon Line, which makes Baltimore City the bolt -- one that has been tightened a hair too much." The city Baltimore most closely resembles is New Orleans: Both retain a rakish 19th century charm and police forces and court systems to match that make them ideal locations for novels and novelists.
  • The Times looks at the housing market and uncovers the obvious—"the housing burden is not carried uniformly, and it is particularly daunting for those with low or stagnant wages who have had to deal with the reality of escalating real estate costs. In that respect, some say, Kansas is not all that different from Manhattan or anyplace else."
  • On the list of the 100 cities with the lowest ratio of home value to household income, all are small cities and 31 of the top 50 are in Texas. On the flip side, 35 of the 50 cities with the most leveraged homes are in California, and a lot more are cities you've heard of. Both lists from the addictive to browse city-data.com.
  • Julia Vitullo-Martin sees cause for hope in Newark.

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    October 23, 2006

    Monday Quick Hits—Proximity for Better or Worse


    —Congrats to the Tigers for the win last night, but the World Series won't help Detroit very much, and the Super Bowl back in February didn't either.

    —More coming this week on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's purchase of the Chicago Board of Trade to create the world's biggest exchange.

    —Old fashioned physical proximity still matters in Silicon Valley, while Wall Street looks to Pennsylvania to back up, spread out and spread risk. (More at WallStreetWest.org).

    —Speaking of spread-out New York, Brookings finds exurbia ascendant north of the city.

    —On the left coast, Witold Rybczynski looks at San Francisco and when bad architecture happens to good cities.

    —Back East, The Boston Globe is on track for its first unprofitable year ever, and Julia Vitullo-Martin compares Philadelphia to Boston and finds Philly's culture wanting. (Of course Boston being THE university town, with a built-in high tech sector as such, also helps).

    —And Harry Siegel in the New York Post on how Governor Pataki and his fellow incumbocrats hollowed out New York's GOP.

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    October 16, 2006

    An Exceptional Distortion


    Consultant Wendell Cox has an astute essay questioning the methodology of the Heavy Load report on the high combined cost of housing and transportation for working families in urban areas by the Center for Housing Policy. (Here's our post on the report last week, where we expressed some doubt about the numbers used).

    As we noted, the Center implicitly argues that people who move farther away from their jobs to save on housing end up spending most all of the would-be savings on transportation. Cox points out that they backed into their numbers by using a "peer-reviewed" modeling technique to end up with transportation costs more than twice those cited in the readily available Department of Labor figures, and minimizing housing costs (this making more dramatic the cost of transportation as compared to that of housing) by using 2000 Census data, thus missing the dramatic jump in urban housing prices over the last few years.

    While advocacy groups back into their numbers all the time, it is exceptional to see an affordable housing group, whose mission is to lay "the groundwork for the development of concrete and politically viable policies and programs that can be used to promote affordable housing across the country," use a methodology that minimizes the cost of housing.

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    October 12, 2006

    Mortgage vs. Motor


    The Center for Housing Policy, an affordable housing group, has a new report out called A Heavy Load: The Combined Housing and Transportation Burdens of Working Families, that's worth a look. Following up on earlier research by the Center that shows "a clear trade off between the housing and transportation costs of Working Families" (note the capitalization), the report shows that while working families in the 28 metropolitan regions studied spend about the same percentage of income on housing as most families (27.7% for working families against 27.4% for all households), their transportation costs are nearly 50 percent greater.

    There are some methodological problems here, particularly in the study's definition of working families as those with annual income between $20,000 and $50,000, without adjusting for pay variations between regions. And of course the report is intended to push a chronic affordable housing crisis.

    Still, it's striking how little variation there is in combined housing and transportation costs between regions, with working families spending an average of 57% of total income on housing and transportation (against 47.6% for all families), ranging from 54% in Pittsburgh to 63% in San Francisco. There are much greater variances in the housing-transportation split, with St. Louis at 23-32 at one end, and chronic outlier San Francisco at 35-27 at the other.

    The Center pushes the claim that apparently affordable housing is often illusory, with all savings and then some eaten up by car and commuting costs. The data doesn't seem to go quite as far, but there's an excellent point at the end of the article linked above—"A three-car family puts a lot of money into depreciating assets, instead of into mortgages and college educations."

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    October 05, 2006

    Urban Mall Watch


    Following up on yesterday's discussion of downtowns, St. Louis thinks it can revitalize itself with an urban mall near its downtown ballpark. We'll be watching.

    Elsewhere, the Times of London reports on the revival of the downtown mall in Britain and on the continent. John King at the San Francisco Chronicle considers the Westfield and selling the urban mall. (Favorite quote: a veep of design at San Fran's new mega mall explaining that "We wanted an experience that reflects the complexity of the city… We wanted to reflect that this is not just a machine for selling.") Salt Lake City seeks to create the mall as hub, not island.

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    April 20, 2006

    Philadelphia, City of Wonders


    Philadelphia has long been famous for its “pay to play” governance. It’s 624 page zoning code is a nearly endless source of employment for Center City’s many lawyer-fixers. But now the city has outdone itself in demonstrating the sheer perversity of its zoning codes.

    Swing for the fence on the (Zoning Code) By Tom Ferrick Jr. 4/19/6 Imagine the surprise of residents of Philadelphia's Spring Garden section last month when they discovered a 47-story condo project had been approved for the corner of 22d and Spring Garden Streets without a zoning hearing. The reason: The humongous tower - just shy of the height of City Hall - was permitted under the R-15 zoning for the area. The developer got his permit over the counter at the Department of Licenses and Inspections. Imagine the surprise of residents of Northeast Philadelphia a few years back when they discovered they could not get permits to erect fences around their property. The problem: The standard-issue fences on sale at Lowe's and Home Depot are four feet tall, but the city's zoning code allowed only a maximum height of three-and-a-half feet for a fence. Residents who went to the counter at L&I for their fence were turned down. They had to shell out $200 for an appeal to the Zoning Board of Adjustment to get a variance. Philadelphia's current zoning code was devised during the Eisenhower administration and enacted in 1962. (But) The zoning code is changed almost constantly, through piecemeal amendments introduced in City Council. In fact, there were 150 such amendments last year. But so many amendments have been added that the code has morphed into a 624-page behemoth that is considered unreadable and unfathomable. One example: Philadelphia has 55 different zoning designations (as in: R-1, R-2, C-1, C-2, etc., etc.). Most cities have 10 or 12.

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  •  

    BOOKS

    America's Trillion-Dollar Housing Mistake: The Failure of American Housing Policy


    Scarcity by Design: The Legacy of New York's Housing Policies


    New York Unbound: The City and the Politics of the Future



    OP-EDS/ARTICLES

    Growing the Inner City


    Back to the Center: The Promise of the New Urbanism


    Reclaiming Our Public Spaces



    RESEARCH

    Pricing the "Luxury Product:" New York City Taxes Under Mayor Bloomberg


    Up From the Ruins: Why Rezoning New York City's Manufacturing Areas for Housing Makes Sense


    New York City's Housing Gap: The Road to Recovery


    Why is Manhattan So Expensive?


    Rent Control and Housing Investment: Evidence from Deregulation in Cambridge Massachusetts


    This Works: Encouraging Economic Growth


    This Works: Expanding Urban Housing


    Who Really Benefits from New York City's Rent Regulation System?


    Unleashing the Private Sector: How Government Policy Can Facilitate Private Solutions to New York City's Housing Crisis


    The Cost of Good Intentions


    New York City's Housing Gap Revisited


    How to Fix New York's Heavy-Handed Zoning Laws


    Landmark Preservation for a Growing City


    The Whitman Tax Cuts: Real Gains For New Jersey Taxpayers


    Help For the Disabled?


    The Effects of Rent Deregulation in Massachusetts


    Stagnation By Regulation: The Sad Tale of the Three-Family House


    Competition vs. Corruption: Reforming New York's Garbage Industry


    New York City's Housing Gap


    New Jersey Income Tax Cut Led to Savings, Not Rise in Local Taxes


    The Best Christmas Present Washington Could Give New York